The Pakistan Quagmire

by Raj on November 6, 2007

The current unrest in Pakistan won’t end gracefully.  Nor will it end soon.  People are calling for the restoration of democracy as if there was one functioning before.  Their history doesn’t exactly portray one of a harmonious, mountainous nation thriving by the will of the people.  Frankly, democracy isn’t what we should be concerned with at the moment.  It’s the power vacuum about to be created with radicals waiting in the wings that the world should focus on.

Further, Pakistan’s friends and foes alike will need to intervene when Musharraf loses power.  There’s an assumption in the previous statement:  I don’t think he’ll make it through this unscathed.   His time as come — and his opponents will use this current weakness as an opportunity to seize power and convert Pakistan into our greatest nightmare:  extremists with nuclear weapons.

Even with a relatively stable regime, the Pakistanis managed to proliferate nuclear weapons to every known offender worldwide who possessed a little cash.  Iran and North Korea only have their nuclear capabilities because of these fellows who are now regarded as national heroes.  Iran in particular looks like a walk in the park compared to the situation in Pakistan.  So Ahmadinejad questions the Jewish holocaust — who cares at the moment when there might be another one but on a much larger scale?

There’s no easy answer to the current situation.  Propping up Musharraf’s regime with billions of US dollars has not proven useful.  US troops on the ground won’t work as a force to keep things from completely disintegrating — the Pakistani people would revolt in a violent way.   A puppet government also would prove ineffective as it has so many times in the past.

Our main mission, however covert it might be, should be to secure the nuclear weapons — or just destroy them before it gets into the wrong hands.  India might be forced to react to this before the US has a chance.  We’re not next door to Pakistan and don’t have the urgency that India has.  And I wouldn’t blame her either.

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